Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
