Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
